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Size of each round?


knowingnothing

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knowingnothing
  • Applicant

UoT's website states that they make less than 300 offers each cycle for a class of roughly 200 students. Looking at the admitted's posts this year, I suspect that UoT released only a third, or even less, of offers in the first round. But anyway it's just my guess. I'm curious if anyone happens to know how big each round is. 

 

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Pecan Boy
  • Articling Student

I am reasonably sure that, two admission cycles ago, after the first round of offers went out the Facebook group had more than 100 people in it. Maybe like 120 or something. 

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LordBONSAI
  • Applicant

I remember reading this thread in which a poster alleged the number of acceptances in the March round was very small. If that still holds true, the Dec and Jan rounds take up a big chunk of offers (likely 200+).

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squirrel
  • Law Student
2 hours ago, Pecan Boy said:

I am reasonably sure that, two admission cycles ago, after the first round of offers went out the Facebook group had more than 100 people in it. Maybe like 120 or something. 

There’s 168 non-admin members in the Facebook group right now

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LordBONSAI
  • Applicant
11 minutes ago, squirrel said:

There’s 168 non-admin members in the Facebook group right now

Interesting. This is more than what I expected. It seems that UofT already released over half of its total offers in the first round, which is exceptional given how slow this cycle has been. 

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knowingnothing
  • Applicant
6 minutes ago, LordBONSAI said:

Interesting. This is more than what I expected. It seems that UofT already released over half of its total offers in the first round, which is exceptional given how slow this cycle has been. 

So there'll be less than half of the seats available in the next two rounds? I thought the dec pool was relatively smaller than the jan/feb one...

Edited by knowingnothing
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LordBONSAI
  • Applicant
12 minutes ago, knowingnothing said:

So there'll be less than half of the seats available in the next two rounds? I thought the dec pool was relatively smaller than the jan/feb one...

If they don't over-enrol, then yes. So far both medians for those admitted (based on data from this forum and LSD) are higher than last cycle, so it's likely at least some offers in the following rounds will go to applicants with lower stats, unless UofT tries to drive the numbers up for the second year in a row. 

Edited by LordBONSAI
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vital_signs
  • Law Student
8 hours ago, LordBONSAI said:

If they don't over-enrol, then yes. So far both medians for those admitted (based on data from this forum and LSD) are higher than last cycle, so it's likely at least some offers in the following rounds will go to applicants with lower stats, unless UofT tries to drive the numbers up for the second year in a row. 

Do Canadian schools really try to "drive the numbers up" like American schools do? I imagine U of T went up last year because scores themselves went up. There were many more top scorers than there usually are. Obviously U of T uses the LSAT as an important part of the evaluation, but if they think that a student will be successful in law school, a great lawyer, and a good fit for them, it seems that they are much more open to emphasising their other qualities in spite of a lower LSAT score. Maybe I'm missing something here and feel free to fill me in, but it's not like they have the US News breathing down their necks nor will a slight change in LSAT change the perception of the school versus Osgoode/McGill/UBC.

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LordBONSAI
  • Applicant
1 hour ago, vital_signs said:

Do Canadian schools really try to "drive the numbers up" like American schools do? 

They don't. Except for the QS rankings (nobody really looks at it), Canadian law schools don't have a ranking system. That's why I suggested that it's unlikely UofT's medians will surpass last cycle's. 

Edited by LordBONSAI
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knowingnothing
  • Applicant

Does anyone feel like this second round is small? Way less offers than I expect. I fear the class was almost full after the first round😧

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knowingnothing
  • Applicant
3 hours ago, knowingnothing said:

Does anyone feel like this second round is small? Way less offers than I expect. I fear the class was almost full after the first round😧

I should have added that last cycle it took longer time, like two days, in the second round but there's only one day this year. 

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LordBONSAI
  • Applicant
6 hours ago, knowingnothing said:

Does anyone feel like this second round is small? Way less offers than I expect. I fear the class was almost full after the first round😧

It's equally likely that the final round will be bigger than usual. 

Edited by LordBONSAI
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  • 2 weeks later...
Jean-Ralphio Saperstein
  • Law Student
On 2/5/2022 at 1:30 AM, LordBONSAI said:

It's equally likely that the final round will be bigger than usual. 

PRAYING for this 🥲

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VitalGiraffe
  • Law Student
On 1/30/2022 at 11:33 AM, LordBONSAI said:

I remember reading this thread in which a poster alleged the number of acceptances in the March round was very small. If that still holds true, the Dec and Jan rounds take up a big chunk of offers (likely 200+).

Yeah I'm hoping what the guy in this thread said is true. Schools last year had a much higher yield than expected. I think they are probably erring on the side of caution now. Hoping for a decent sized wave this March. Last I heard the FB is sitting at 217. That means there's still a couple dozen acceptances to go out, not just 5-10 (assuming almost every joins the FB group).

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LordBONSAI
  • Applicant
27 minutes ago, VitalGiraffe said:

Yeah I'm hoping what the guy in this thread said is true. Schools last year had a much higher yield than expected. I think they are probably erring on the side of caution now. Hoping for a decent sized wave this March. Last I heard the FB is sitting at 217. That means there's still a couple dozen acceptances to go out, not just 5-10 (assuming almost every joins the FB group).

That could be the case. Last year UofT's 1L had 215 students, not a big increase from the 2019-20 cycle (212). Since yield went up unexpectedly, they most likely had already filled the class up by round two without having realized it. So it makes sense only a dozen of people were accepted in the final round to avoid over-enrollment. 

Even taking sampling issue into consideration, the size of round two this year is notably smaller. Like what @knowingnothingpointed out, UofT only spent one day calling the admitted students, versus two full days last year.

Edited by LordBONSAI
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owl12
  • Applicant

There’s exactly 217 non-admins in the FB group right now. Considering that there’s a 60-70% yield rate, and accounting for admits that didn’t enter the group chat, it’s likely there’s still at least a few dozen more admits coming in the next round. I could even see upwards of 60+ if most admits are already in the group and yield rate stays the same. (Very rough estimate, and this doesn’t take into account prior deferrals).

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buoy
  • Law School Admit
10 hours ago, owl12 said:

and this doesn’t take into account prior deferrals

The prior year's deferrals are already in facebook group, fwiw

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Bread
  • Law School Admit

Update: there are currently 223 non-admin members in the UofT class of 2025 Facebook group.

On 2/14/2022 at 2:08 AM, owl12 said:

There’s exactly 217 non-admins in the FB group right now. Considering that there’s a 60-70% yield rate, and accounting for admits that didn’t enter the group chat, it’s likely there’s still at least a few dozen more admits coming in the next round. I could even see upwards of 60+ if most admits are already in the group and yield rate stays the same. (Very rough estimate, and this doesn’t take into account prior deferrals).

If you are using the yield rate from 2012, I would urge caution against using rates that may not apply to the current year, especially to a Facebook group where I believe the yield rate is likely higher. Some people may not wish to join a Facebook group if they are not decided or have decided against it already, so the group numbers may be smaller than the amount of acceptances already sent out (and the number of people in the group is still growing).

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VitalGiraffe
  • Law Student
2 hours ago, Latecomer2021 said:

Update: there are currently 223 non-admin members in the UofT class of 2025 Facebook group.

STOP THE COUNT

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knowingnothing
  • Applicant
On 2/17/2022 at 3:42 AM, Latecomer2021 said:

If you are using the yield rate from 2012, I would urge caution against using rates that may not apply to the current year, especially to a Facebook group where I believe the yield rate is likely higher. Some people may not wish to join a Facebook group if they are not decided or have decided against it already, so the group numbers may be smaller than the amount of acceptances already sent out (and the number of people in the group is still growing).

Does this mean that their 1L is almost full and we won't see more acceptances in March? I fear that there'll be only ~250 offers this cycle because the yield rate is higher. 

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Eatable Bran
  • Law Student
On 2/16/2022 at 12:42 PM, Latecomer2021 said:

If you are using the yield rate from 2012, I would urge caution against using rates that may not apply to the current year, especially to a Facebook group where I believe the yield rate is likely higher. 

The most recent data on the yield rate for the Faculty of Law is from 2019, when the rate was 63.7%

See: https://data.utoronto.ca/performance-indicators/education-pathways/recruitment-admissions/

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LordBONSAI
  • Applicant
8 hours ago, knowingnothing said:

Does this mean that their 1L is almost full and we won't see more acceptances in March? I fear that there'll be only ~250 offers this cycle because the yield rate is higher. 

No. Given the decline of both applicants and competitive LSAT scores, I don't think UofT will again meet the last-minute problem they faced last year(i.e. over-enrollment). Even if the yield rate is as high as 80 percent (on par with Yale, which is very rare), UofT still has 270 acceptances to make this cycle (and 50 more in the next round). Moreover, in previous cycles, as @Eatable Bran kindly brings forth, the number of offers was consistently over 300. 

In the worst case scenario, we would expect a longer waitlist this March. But that will come after a sizable round of offers. 

 

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