Putting order to my disordered thoughts: Index score predictions/ruminations please

[pinsandneedles]

Good morning everybody! 

 

I hope everybody is having a great Friday. 

 

Just wondering if anybody has any predictions on what index score will be needed for acceptance this year.

 

2022 so far: seems like everybody reporting on the UofA accepted thread was 250+

 

Based on 2021's accepted thread:

Mid-March onward: seems like it was primarily 246+ getting accepted

Early-April and onward: 243+

 

Based on 2020's accepted thread:

Mid-March onward: 243+

Early-April and onward: 240+

 

I am hearing that applications are down about 10-20% off last year's numbers across the country, but on the lower end of that spectrum for Alberta. Anybody have any exact figures? The change in LSAT score policy and increased number of applications seem to have raised the index scores substantially in the 2021 cycle. I suppose it's anybody's guess what index scores are going to look like in April and beyond. I reckon if one is still in the hunt in April, ECs and personal statement will play some role. I know that typing all of this out will have zero impact on whether I get in or not, but at least it helps put some order to my disordered thoughts. My heart goes out to my fellow applicants who also feel like they are in limbo. 

Personally, I'm sitting at a 242.5.

LSAT: 169

L20: 3.3

Strong EC's and personal statement I think, but that's obviously a biased opinion. Any thoughts, feedback, corrections, and predictions would be appreciated!

 

Warmest regards,

pinsandneedles

Edited February 18, 2022 by pinsandneedles

[Cruss]

Just for clarification: when you say mid-March does that mean up until mid March or from March onward?

Thanks for compiling this it’s really useful to see the trends. And for the record I am just as anxious waiting.

[nitzy]

In the same boat. I have nothing to offer you except my sincere condolences. 

[pinsandneedles]

1 minute ago, Cruss said:

Just for clarification: when you say mid-March does that mean up until mid March or from March onward?

Thanks for compiling this it’s really useful to see the trends. And for the record I am just as anxious waiting.

Hi Cruss, thanks for the reply, and great question. That unclear heading is not very lawyerly of me! I meant March onward. 🙂

[User456]

My index is 248, so I can update this if I hear next month. I think this may slow down acceptances, and it'll be hard to determine the outcome until we know what's happening with the potential strike. I assume their priorities lie elsewhere right now, unfortunately for us. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/university-of-alberta-contract-mediation-1.6355588

1 minute ago, User456 said:

My index is 248, so I can update this if I hear next month. I think this may slow down acceptances, and it'll be hard to determine the outcome until we know what's happening with the potential strike. I assume their priorities lie elsewhere right now, unfortunately for us. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/university-of-alberta-contract-mediation-1.6355588

Also in terms of your chances, I have no idea. I don't believe there was anything less than a 3.5 GPA on the ladder in 2021 acceptance profile, so that is to assume that if someone did get in with a lower GPA, it would have been holistically. It's so hard to tell, this cycle feels like it's moving at a snails pace. I hope you get in!

Edited February 18, 2022 by User456

[pinsandneedles]

Just now, User456 said:

My index is 248, so I can update this if I hear next month. I think this may slow down acceptances, and it'll be hard to determine the outcome until we know what's happening with the potential strike. I assume their priorities lie elsewhere right now, unfortunately for us. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/university-of-alberta-contract-mediation-1.6355588

Well then... that's just perfect! Lol. 

Thanks for the reply, and keeping us posted. I hope you get in on the next wave! My very rough prediction is the next wave will drop by about 3 index points. 

[User456]

1 minute ago, pinsandneedles said:

Well then... that's just perfect! Lol. 

Thanks for the reply, and keeping us posted. I hope you get in on the next wave! My very rough prediction is the next wave will drop by about 3 index points. 

Thank you! I appreciate you compiling this, and appreciate your predictions. I am going mad trying to determine when I will hear, all I do is re-read my statements and look through old threads. It's hard when it seems to have no pattern, but when it's laid out like this it helps (thank you). Seeing candidates with seemingly average scores (of course we have no idea what their application entails) that apply in January get in a week later and then someone with wonderful scores posting acceptances in April, it's very confusing. My prediction based on last year is there may be some acceptances around march 8 (that is if there's no strike, the strike would be in the first week or March) and then perhaps mid march, around the 18th. I did expect some this week or next week, but maybe not. 

[PsychologicalBug]

I have an index score of 249.875 (3.95/161) and have been in agony while waiting. Thanks for this post and the breakdown. Best of luck. 

[Renerik]

Applications are not down 10-20%. They're down by ~4% in western Canada (Up 5% overall!) compared to last cycle but adjusted for applicant volume we see that the average applicant has applied to more schools this year than last. I've reached out to a few of the UofA December and January admits, the vast majority have or will be turning down their offers. 
I think this cycle will be rough at UofA given the changes in the LSAT policy but I don't think those hovering anywhere near a 250 index should have much to worry about.

[Lawyerup36]

Thanks for the information, but I want to stress that at the end of the day numbers are no guarantee! And the university of Alberta admitted 85 applicants last year based on holistic admission. 85/185. That’s is a lot! My point is that if you fall below the index predictor than your app gets sent for holistic review, and the U of A does not report the stats for holistic admissions! This is made clear on there admit profile page on the portal. That being said, don’t drive yourself crazy over numbers, it’s a well known fact that law schools all over inflate their or don’t include certain admissions stats. U of C accepted 4 splitters last year, but that is not on there admit stats. Hang in there people! When stats are competitive and there are 200 people with the same stats they have to look at other things. Meeting the requirements will not guarantee admission. The fact of the matter is to quote my prof “nobody knows what is enough”. That’s the hard part!

[maybemaybe]

hope you all get in! I am blown away by how competitive this year's acceptances are 

[theaukr]

Wanted to add to this instead of starting a new topic. After seeing all of the acceptances thus far and people coming off the waitlist, it is very frustrating to see that the UofA clearly only cares about LSAT score whether it be combined with a VERY low GPA or high but if you have a lower LSAT score you are basically out of the running. I'm inclined to think that the index score actually means nothing because I am still waiting on the waitlist but have a higher index score than about half of those accepted from the waitlist. Lastly, this is just a rant and I am not looking for comments of sympathy or to argue or to be told "well raise your LSAT score". I just had to get this out because this is the only place where everyone understands and I'm extremely frustrated with this because even just two years ago I would likely have been accepted already. 

[Lilbb19]

12 minutes ago, theaukr said:

Wanted to add to this instead of starting a new topic. After seeing all of the acceptances thus far and people coming off the waitlist, it is very frustrating to see that the UofA clearly only cares about LSAT score whether it be combined with a VERY low GPA or high but if you have a lower LSAT score you are basically out of the running. I'm inclined to think that the index score actually means nothing because I am still waiting on the waitlist but have a higher index score than about half of those accepted from the waitlist. Lastly, this is just a rant and I am not looking for comments of sympathy or to argue or to be told "well raise your LSAT score". I just had to get this out because this is the only place where everyone understands and I'm extremely frustrated with this because even just two years ago I would likely have been accepted already. 

Yea in 2019 I was a January admit with similar stats. 

[Philosophy]

30 minutes ago, theaukr said:

Wanted to add to this instead of starting a new topic. After seeing all of the acceptances thus far and people coming off the waitlist, it is very frustrating to see that the UofA clearly only cares about LSAT score whether it be combined with a VERY low GPA or high but if you have a lower LSAT score you are basically out of the running. I'm inclined to think that the index score actually means nothing because I am still waiting on the waitlist but have a higher index score than about half of those accepted from the waitlist. Lastly, this is just a rant and I am not looking for comments of sympathy or to argue or to be told "well raise your LSAT score". I just had to get this out because this is the only place where everyone understands and I'm extremely frustrated with this because even just two years ago I would likely have been accepted already. 

I feel you. I feel like I also would've gone to a different school if times were different. 

My only conclusion is admissions standards have gone up and we were just unlucky to apply during these times. Life is difficult and things don't always work out the way we want but we just gotta accept it and move on. 🙂

Edited May 26, 2022 by Philosophy
happy face

[existentialdread]

1 hour ago, theaukr said:

Wanted to add to this instead of starting a new topic. After seeing all of the acceptances thus far and people coming off the waitlist, it is very frustrating to see that the UofA clearly only cares about LSAT score whether it be combined with a VERY low GPA or high but if you have a lower LSAT score you are basically out of the running. I'm inclined to think that the index score actually means nothing because I am still waiting on the waitlist but have a higher index score than about half of those accepted from the waitlist. Lastly, this is just a rant and I am not looking for comments of sympathy or to argue or to be told "well raise your LSAT score". I just had to get this out because this is the only place where everyone understands and I'm extremely frustrated with this because even just two years ago I would likely have been accepted already. 

I personally thought the trend was showing the opposite. Barely any sub 3.7 L2  acceptances but lots of 3.9s and 4.0s with mid-high 150s. I was under the impression that they were prioritizing GPA. My GPA is kind of shitty in comparison (3.5 ish) to what a lot of the accepted people have gotten but my 163 LSAT is also higher than a lot of people who have gotten in. 

I think end of the day there isn't much rhyme to the reason. Some people obviously have rockstar stats and super high everything...other people had the advantage of having their applications completed the day that they opened vs. those who wrote the Jan LSAT.

 

I think it's also probably fair to say that by the time you get to the waitlisted group of people, everyone is objectively good on paper and everyone is a good choice. I'm under the impression that there is a "fairy dusty" element to this whole process. You get lucky with who reviews your app and who you are compared against and that is what makes the major difference when it comes to deciding who gets accepted off the waitlist.

 

This process is very frustrating and trust me when I say I can emphasize as someone who has now done this song and dance for a THIRD time and is waitlisted with no answer in sight. 

Edited May 26, 2022 by existentialdread

[Notworthy]

11 minutes ago, existentialdread said:

I personally thought the trend was showing the opposite. Barely any sub 3.7 L2  acceptances but lots of 3.9s and 4.0s with mid-high 150s. I was under the impression that they were prioritizing GPA. My GPA is kind of shitty in comparison (3.5 ish) to what a lot of the accepted people have gotten but my 163 LSAT is also higher than a lot of people who have gotten in. 

I think end of the day there isn't much rhyme to the reason. Some people obviously have rockstar stats and super high everything...other people had the advantage of having their applications completed the day that they opened vs. those who wrote the Jan LSAT.

 

I think it's also probably fair to say that by the time you get to the waitlisted group of people, everyone is objectively good on paper and everyone is a good choice. I'm under the impression that there is a "fairy dusty" element to this whole process. You get lucky with who reviews your app and who you are compared against and that is what makes the major difference when it comes to deciding who gets accepted off the waitlist.

 

This process is very frustrating and trust me when I say I can emphasize as someone who has now done this song and dance for a THIRD time and is waitlisted with no answer in sight. 

UofA operates on an index basis and have been for the last several years. I understand your frustration but your index has been lower than those accepted 3.5*22.5 + 163 =241.75 when historically a competitive index is a 242. If it makes you feel better I was waitlisted with a 250 index and since have been admitted but there is a method to the admission process.

I get that this is a frustrating time for you, as it is for everyone else and I wish you the best and hope I see you next year. I apologize for the pain / struggle you feel as I have been there. Wish you well. 

I completely disagree with the “dusty” ideal you have. People got admitted even before they submitted a personal statement. This is a numbers school. We’re not getting lucky, we have a competitive index and additionally it depends on when everything was submitted.

Edited May 26, 2022 by Notworthy

[Notworthy]

If you go back and calculate everyone’s indexes, majority if not all are significantly higher than 242.

[existentialdread]

6 minutes ago, Notworthy said:

UofA operates on an index basis and have been for the last several years. I understand your frustration but your index has been lower than those accepted 3.5*22.5 + 163 =241.75 when historically a competitive index is a 242. If it makes you feel better I was waitlisted with a 250 index and since have been admitted but there is a method to the admission process.

I get that this is a frustrating time for you, as it is for everyone else and I wish you the best and hope I see you next year. I apologize for the pain / struggle you feel as I have been there. Wish you well. 

I completely disagree with the “dusty” ideal you have. People got admitted even before they submitted a personal statement. This is a numbers school. We’re not getting lucky, we have a competitive index and additionally it depends on when everything was submitted.

Ok, I do not wish to get into it with you again, but you are not paying attention to the conversation at hand here. OP has an index above that, and above other people who have been admitted but they have not yet been admitted. 

The person I was replying to has an index above the "auto admit". People are admitted all the time with lower index scores than those who are waiting. So yes, although we are all fully aware this is a "numbers school", admissions still makes decisions that don't follow in line with that assumption. 

Please read everything before you insert yourself. 

Edited May 26, 2022 by existentialdread

[Notworthy]

I have read it, and I was replying to your comment on how it is the luck of the draw for those who reach admission and your “dusty” commentary. I am not trying to insert myself or fight with you. 

[existentialdread]

Just now, Notworthy said:

I have read it, and I was replying to your comment on how it is the luck of the draw for those who reach admission and your “dusty” commentary. I am not trying to insert myself or fight with you. 

You most certainly are not reading. I said by the time you get to the waitlist, there is a fairy dust element. Anyone who makes it to that point is a good candidate on paper, but they are not purely following index scores when choosing who to send offers to and that is obvious if you review the threads and pull out your calculator. In fact, it is "common knowledge" that the holistic reviews come with the waitlist.

So unless people are lying, which is possible, the waitlist acceptances aren't always going to be those with the highest indexes. But by all means, if you have any insider information that the rest of us on this forum do not have and could help future applicants, I implore you to share it. 

[Renerik]

I wouldn't put too much weight in the index formula you see floating around the forum. It's from years ago, prior to UofA's change to only taking an applicant's highest LSAT score.