Legal Hiring During Recessions

[bocuma]

There are a lot of sources predicting that a recession is coming, either next year or in 2024. If one does happen, I'm almost certainly going to graduate right in the middle of one.

For those with a little more experience, how have recessions affected the legal job market? What impact do you think this will have on new grads over the next couple years? Would it be smarter to secure articles ASAP, rather than look for articling jobs during 3L?

[QueensDenning]

21 hours ago, bocuma said:

Would it be smarter to secure articles ASAP, rather than look for articling jobs during 3L?

I mean most people (the overwhelming majority) want to secure articles ASAP rather than looking during 3L. If you're looking during 3L it's probably not out of choice, it's because you couldn't secure it earlier.

Not that I have much experience but I hear the legal industry is a lot more recession proof than other industries. 

[Jaggers]

Yeah, I was job searching in 2008, and while it wasn't the best year for hireback/job search, it was not nearly as bad as a lot of other industries.

[bocuma]

43 minutes ago, QueensDenning said:

I mean most people (the overwhelming majority) want to secure articles ASAP rather than looking during 3L. If you're looking during 3L it's probably not out of choice, it's because you couldn't secure it earlier.

Not that I have much experience but I hear the legal industry is a lot more recession proof than other industries. 

I'm at UVic doing their co-op program and was considering putting off looking for articles until 3L, but I'm starting to realize this might limit my options for articling because most firms hire students that summer for them first.

I suppose when the economy is good there's lots of commercial activity hence lots of work, and when it's bad there's lots of disputes. And then tax/death/family issues/crime are always issues regardless of the economy.

[QMT20]

Hiring in transactional groups will definitely take a hit if there's a recession. I know a few litigators who say but for the fact that they articled during the last recession, they would have gone into a transactional practice. 

I know a few people who didn't get hired back after articling that are having a tough time finding a position right now. Some firms have said that they're not looking to add more associates right now after hiring back their own articling classes because work has been slowing down compared to last year. Others that were hiring decided now is not the best time to expand after all. Hard to predict the impact on people graduating over the next couple of years since we still don't know for sure what the economy or the legal market will be like at that time. However, I don't think hiring is as hot right now as it was last year, and that's at least in part due to apprehensiveness about a potential recession.  

[BlockedQuebecois]

I agree with all the above posts, but I would add that lawyers and students looking to work in NY (or CA) big law should turn their mind to a possible recession and its potential consequences for the US legal market.

During the Great Recession many American firms furloughed their incoming associate classes for months without pay, and when they brought in their classes they didn't bring in all those who had offers. Some firms even skipped the furlough process, instead rescinding the offers they'd extended to 3Ls.

There is also much less loyalty, for lack of a better word, in American firms: see e.g. the 828 lawyers fired by the NY offices of big law firms on February 11 and 12 of 2008. And that's before you even get into the thousands of lawyers left without a job following the collapse of firms like Thacher Proffitt & Wood, Dewey & LeBouef, and Howrey LLP.

There are structural differences between American big law and Canadian big law which makes it less likely, on the whole, that you'll find yourself high and dry out of a Canadian firm than an American one. 

All that being said, lawyers and students may very well still want to pursue American opportunities. Just make sure you're doing so with your eyes open. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by BlockedQuebecois

[Randomdude]

14 hours ago, BlockedQuebecois said:

I agree with all the above posts, but I would add that lawyers and students looking to work in NY (or CA) big law should turn their mind to a possible recession and its potential consequences for the US legal market

Are we expecting the NY recruit to be smaller this summer for the incoming 2Ls?

[JustHereNotStaying]

I want to practice for government, but tbh I also have a backup plan because of the recession.

[Aureliuse]

Recession might not hit every practice of law the same way. It might not be good to generalize the recession's impact across the board.

For example, in family law, a recession often can result in an explosion in divorce cases. It can lead to many firms scrambling to hire to meet the demand - even poaching experienced lawyers from other firms via head hunters.