Law Applicants Predictor

[ShouldHaveBeenAnEngineer]

I was just wondering if any past applicants could chime in on how useful they found the predictor in been and how accurate it was in calling what acceptances/rejections they eventually got. Considering how hard last cycle was (as a benchmark), I'm wondering if we should consider it helpful for us or if we should ignore what it says now. Love to hear some opinions on it though!

[scooter]

TBH I don't think it's very accurate. The predictor is based on old and incomplete data (self-reported from other users, most recent being 2018).

Gonna post part of what I wrote in the discord a while ago:

Quote

 

A better way to gauge your chances is to look at the GPA and LSAT medians for schools. These are historical medians, not necessarily the school's "target" for this year, but it gives you an idea.

If you are above both medians for a school, you have a great chance of being admitted. It's not guaranteed though because there are many other factors like your personal statement, etc. If you have terrible writing or act like a jackass to admissions that could negate good stats.

If you are below both medians for a school, you don't have a very good chance but it's still possible to be admitted. Every school admits people who are below both medians every year.

If you are above one median and below the other it is pretty unpredictable. Again, it comes down to other factors in your application.

 

Obviously, it also matters how far above/below the medians you are. 1 point below the LSAT median is different than 5 or 10.

I would just do the above and it will give you a reasonable idea of where you stand with your chances.

[Kobe]

I don't think you will be able to glean much from people saying "The calculator was right for me". Though I guess if many people who were "Very likely" got rejected (or the opposite with very unlikely) we could begin to doubt the predictive ability of the model. 

I think if you have a relatively normal profile it is likely the results are still somewhat significant. Though cycles can obviously change quite drastically and we are relying on past results. So it has drastic limitations. I could build a model that is highly useful for one cycle and the same model might be garbage the next. It would be impossible to say how reliable the model is because we do not know if the model will still work with the new observations we will have this year.

1 hour ago, ShouldHaveBeenAnEngineer said:

I'm wondering if we should consider it helpful for us or if we should ignore what it says now. Love to hear some opinions on it though!

 It's more of a fun thing to see, I would put very little stock in the predictor. It is one opinion and should not be relied on. So sure it is helpful so far as it might give you a general idea of where you stand but there are some pretty obvious limitations to it.