Can we tell if this cycle is more/less competitive?

[lawloops]

Hey all, is it possible to tell if this cycle is more/less competitive and if LSAT averages are decreasing/increasing from now? Just curious lol. 

[jayg327]

https://report.lsac.org/VolumeSummary.aspx

go to the pages for canadian applications and canadian applicants. they'll give you an idea how this cycle is trending compared to the last

there's also a page that compares the last five years. that'll give you a sense of how competitive this cycle is compared to the past four years.

[BigRed]

It appears that there's an increase in competitiveness based on the number of applicants, rising by almost 9% compared to last year. However, there's an interesting trend in LSAT scores, showing a 7% decrease, particularly in the 165-180 range. From my perspective, the situation seems to indicate only a marginal increase in competitiveness since there are more students vying for the same number of seats, but the quality of scores has seen a decline. Make of that what you will, but you can look at the data yourself on the LSAC webpage. 

[scooter]

Quote

YTD Canadian Applicants from Region/Province of Permanent Residence

These figures are based on enrollment year 2024 data received through 12/21/2023 and enrollment year 2023 data received through 12/21/2022. As compared to one year ago, current year applicants are up 8.6%. As compared to two years ago, current year applicants are down 3.4%.

"Increase" in number of applicants is not very meaningful when it's just based on whatever data has been reported part way through the cycle (as of Dec 21 in this case), rather than looking at the total numbers at the end of a cycle when the reporting is complete. Pretty easy to see how one school reporting earlier/later than they did the year prior would totally skew the numbers. I would take anything in this report relating to number of applicants in Canada with a grain of salt.

Also, you are not interpreting the LSAT stats correctly. This report shows a 7% decrease in the number of scores. An increase in total number of applicants but a decrease in total number of scores just indicates that many people haven't written the LSAT yet (January test takers).

A decrease in 165-180 LSAT scores is only meaningful as a proportion of the total number of LSAT scores. This report shows a 1.4% decrease in 165+ LSAT scores as a percentage of total scores, compared to 2023. Not necessarily surprising because there was some inflation of higher scores during the last few years with the LSAT Flex, so things may just be coming back down to the pre-2020 baseline.