UBC Law: Mid-Cycle Data Analysis (93+ Indexes!)

[ts983409123]

Hello everyone,

A lot of people have been speculating on whether the historical autoadmission threshold of 92 is still relevant, so I thought I would examine the data we have so far and come to a conclusion from there. I went through the Accepted 2022 megathread, calculated everyone's index scores, and mapped them out on an Excel chart:

 

• Admissions Waves
  • Wave 1 was November 24, 2021.
  • Wave 2 was December 17, 2021.
  • Wave 3 includes all of the offers sent out in January 2022.
• The red, bolded text represents the average (mean) index score for each wave.
• Data may not be 100% accurate as a small handful of applicants (<5) were unsure of their own GPAs or had to recalculate them via WES. Nonetheless, I did my best to provide reasonable estimations.

As we can see from the above graph, the vast majority of offers so far went out to students with index scores over 93. Only one applicant managed to obtain a Wave 1 offer with an index under 93. Something else I noticed from reading the megathread was that offers in Waves 2 and 3 didn't necessarily go to applicants less competitive than the ones who got offers in Wave 1 - the admitted students in those later waves had comparable index scores. Rather, Dec. and Jan. offers were given to 93+ index scorers who simply applied last-minute or took later LSAT dates. Getting a Wave 1 offer seems to be a matter of having a completed file by Sept/Oct in addition to having a 93+ index. 

Lastly, Wave 3 had an incredible outlier with a ~97 index score, but even if that outlier is deleted from the data set, the graph doesn't change much:

 

Because there will likely be another admissions wave before the end of February, this graph may soon need to be updated. Still though, I hope it offers a decent look at how the cycle has gone so far. 

[Turtles]

One thing I will note is that it's not unusual for schools to admit the higher stats applicants first in a bid to lock them down (as they have the most options). There will still be a handful being admitted in May, even a few over the summer. The average index will go down as a result and the early skew should not dishearten anyone. 

[toro-nigiri]

How does this compare with previous years? Are offers before and up to January usually in the 93+ range or have they historically dropped down by now? 

[lawskool1]

Anyone have insight on quantity of offers given this year at this point versus last year? Or insight on how many offers are likely to come still? Im getting a little worried that it is Feb and still no news back 😞 

[ts983409123]

4 hours ago, toro-nigiri said:

Are offers before and up to January usually in the 93+ range 

Good question. Last year, first-round offers (December) also went to 93+ indexes on average, but the mean fell back down to the mid 92's by January. I'll attach a visualization of last year's cycle. Disclaimer - I did not create this image, credit goes to someone else from the old forum:

 

And just to compare, here's how the cycle looked two years ago (again, creds to someone else):

[RC51]

welp here I am with my 90.3 🙃

[LordBONSAI]

The same situation happens to UofT where the median LSAT of those admitted based on available data points is higher than last cycle. I second @Turtles's opinion that it's customary for law schools to admit applicants with higher stats first in the cycle. However, that jump of 93+ scorers is somewhat intriguing. Disregarding sampling bias (because the forum is new), as LSAT scores are down this cycle, I can only think of an increase of high GPAs that may contribute to this inflation.

Edited February 8, 2022 by LordBONSAI

[knowingnothing]

I don't know but I feel this cycle is gonna be tough at UBC. I mean many applicants could still apply with a flex score even though lsac reported declines in all score ranges. 

2 hours ago, LordBONSAI said:

 I can only think of an increase of high GPAs that may contribute to this inflation.

That's true. Average gpa in my university shot up after covid hit. 

[knowingnothing]

5 hours ago, lawskool1 said:

Anyone have insight on quantity of offers given this year at this point versus last year? Or insight on how many offers are likely to come still? Im getting a little worried that it is Feb and still no news back 😞 

Usually you can tell it from the FB group for admitted students, if there's one. I know UBC has more than 300 offers to make.

[ts983409123]

6 hours ago, lawskool1 said:

Im getting a little worried that it is Feb and still no news back 😞 

Let's not get too discouraged yet - last year, there was a wave of acceptances that took place on February 11 🙂

1 hour ago, knowingnothing said:

I don't know but I feel this cycle is gonna be tough at UBC.

Well, as @LordBONSAI pointed out re: sampling bias, the people who posted their stats onto the megathread might not be representative of everyone who actually got offers. The data set I used to make my graph was quite small - there were only 32 index scores represented on it! Just to compare, in last year's megathread on the old forum, there were approx. 47 users who had posted their stats at this point in the cycle (I say approx., since I might've miscounted lol). 

I also think that law schools in general are being more cautious in releasing offers this cycle. Last year, the unexpected jump in LSAT scores caused some schools to release too many offers, resulting in headaches all around. I believe this overbooking even led to the fiasco where TRU Law tried to revoke offers from 42 accepted students since they just didn't have the capacity to take on so many extra students. Schools are probably just being careful and taking things slowly since they don't want to get burned like last year.

[Constantine]

Do you think that there could be a sample bias that skews the numbers higher than it truly is? Seems like the people who trend higher in gpa and LSAT score may be more keen on posting their stats. 
 

I know this possibility was discussed on the old Lawstudents site but I forgot how you guys accounted for it. 
 

edit NVM you guys talked about it in this thread already. I should have read before I posted lol. 

Edited February 8, 2022 by Constantine

[lawskool1]

I gave UBC a call today spoke to a very kind rep from UBC. They told me - because I did my January LSAT - I could expect to hear back Mid march-ish after the round 1 offers have accepted/declined (March 1st deadline). I assume that timeline will be true for most other applicants who have yet to hear back!

I gave her my scores and she said my chances of being admitted are "positive", which is far from very concrete but I will take it haha. 

 

 

[sweetiepie37974]

55 minutes ago, lawskool1 said:

I gave UBC a call today spoke to a very kind rep from UBC. They told me - because I did my January LSAT - I could expect to hear back Mid march-ish after the round 1 offers have accepted/declined (March 1st deadline). I assume that timeline will be true for most other applicants who have yet to hear back!

I gave her my scores and she said my chances of being admitted are "positive", which is far from very concrete but I will take it haha. 

 

 

Any chance you feel comfortable sharing your stats? I'm at 85.7% ish with drops, and got 164 on the November LSAT, which makes my index a 92.116... I have yet to hear back, and am trying not to stress about it (at least until March). I think all of us are stressing a bit with these 93+ index scores😬 No worries if not though! 

[lawskool1]

8 hours ago, sweetiepie37974 said:

Any chance you feel comfortable sharing your stats? I'm at 85.7% ish with drops, and got 164 on the November LSAT, which makes my index a 92.116... I have yet to hear back, and am trying not to stress about it (at least until March). I think all of us are stressing a bit with these 93+ index scores😬 No worries if not though! 

I am at a 93+ after my Jan LSAT. So although its a 93, its a "late in the cycle" 93, so its value is probably equivalent to a lower index score earlier in the cycle. 

[LordBONSAI]

On 2/8/2022 at 10:08 AM, RC51 said:

welp here I am with my 90.3 🙃

Did you apply regular? 

[RC51]

10 hours ago, LordBONSAI said:

Did you apply regular? 

no